Thursday, May 5, 2011

Bank Mandiri target Rp8,500

What’s New
􀂃 Mandiri’s profit of Rp3.8t came as no surprise to us: we had anticipated loan writebacks from Garuda Indonesia to be booked in 1Q11. Excluding the abovementioned non‐recurring income, the bank’s profit would have stood at Rp2.7t, exceeding that of 1Q10 by 34%. Mandiri is also anticipating ~Rp600b in additional writebacks over the next few quarters.
􀂃 In 1Q11, Mandiri’s NIM dropped by 70bp to 5.1% mainly due to asset repricing. However, the bank is still aiming for a NIM of 5.3% by YE11 through greater efficiency in its asset allocation. Mandiri maintained its FY11 loan growth target at 20%‐22% and its growth in low‐cost deposits of over 11% y/y.
Our View
􀂃 We adjust our valuation to factor in the lower‐than‐expected NIM and the additional writebacks target of ~Rp600b. The post‐adjustment earnings still indicate profit growth of 37% for 2011F. The lower tax rate of 5% (that will be applied starting 3Q11 onward) will contribute to ~8% of these earnings growth.
Action & Recommendation
􀂃 Bank Mandiri remains our top pick in the sector. We set our target price at Rp8,500/share (15.7x 2011F PER; 2.9x 2011F PBV), implying a potential upside of 16% from the current price.

source: KIM ENG dated 4 May 2011

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