Friday, June 3, 2011
Indonesia Market Strategy ---From commodity to consumption
● Commodity and domestic consumption stories currently remain the two main drivers of Indonesia’s equity market, with commodity and domestic consumption plays representing 17.9% and 11.3% of Indonesia’s capital market (JCI) by weight.
● However, what is often overlooked is that robust commodity prices lead to stronger income, and purchasing power, in commodity producing regions. With the majority of commodities produced outside Java, Credit Suisse’s survey finds higher income in
regions outside Java than in Java.
● Interestingly, we believe that the penetration of consumption goods outside Java remains relatively modest, with residents outside Java still found to exhibit higher propensity to save, providing upside for consumer plays.
● We identify four companies that may benefit from stronger purchasing power outside Java, namely BBRI, GGRM, ASII, INDF and SMGR.
Companies Mentioned (Price as of 31 May 11)
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI.JK, Rp6350.00, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp8330.00)
Gudang Garam (GGRM.JK, Rp43550.00, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp53000.00)
Astra International (ASII.JK, Rp58750.00, NEUTRAL, TP Rp64000.00)
Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF.JK, Rp5400.00, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp6400.00)
Semen Gresik (Persero) (SMGR.JK, Rp9700.00, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp11000.00)
source: CREDIT SUISSE dated 01 June 2011
● However, what is often overlooked is that robust commodity prices lead to stronger income, and purchasing power, in commodity producing regions. With the majority of commodities produced outside Java, Credit Suisse’s survey finds higher income in
regions outside Java than in Java.
● Interestingly, we believe that the penetration of consumption goods outside Java remains relatively modest, with residents outside Java still found to exhibit higher propensity to save, providing upside for consumer plays.
● We identify four companies that may benefit from stronger purchasing power outside Java, namely BBRI, GGRM, ASII, INDF and SMGR.
Companies Mentioned (Price as of 31 May 11)
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI.JK, Rp6350.00, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp8330.00)
Gudang Garam (GGRM.JK, Rp43550.00, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp53000.00)
Astra International (ASII.JK, Rp58750.00, NEUTRAL, TP Rp64000.00)
Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF.JK, Rp5400.00, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp6400.00)
Semen Gresik (Persero) (SMGR.JK, Rp9700.00, OUTPERFORM, TP Rp11000.00)
source: CREDIT SUISSE dated 01 June 2011
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