Thursday, September 8, 2011
Metal Mining
ON THE PLATTER:
Metal Mining (NEUTRAL): Sector update - Shedding Some Light From The Ore Ban Plan
WHAT’S BREWING?
Industry Minister, Mohamad Hidayat recently stated its consideration to impose a tax on exports of mineral ores and concentrates such as nickel, copper and iron ore before their shipment in non-processed form is banned in 2014. Also a month ago, Coordinating Economic Minister, Hatta Rajasa mentioned its plan to build a road map for negotiations for this unprocessed ore ban plan in order to find a win-win solution with mine players.
OUR TAKE
Metal mining coverage not affected. Although the government’s plan to import tax is still under consideration, we believe companies from our metal mining coverage: International Nickel Indonesia (INCO), Aneka Tambang (ANTM) and Timah (TINS) would not have an impact on this regulation given that all these 3 companies have gone further downstream. It is worth noting that according to the Government Decree no.23 2010 for Implementation of Mineral & Coal Mining Activities, mining license holders (IUP) are obliged to process mineral ore into value added production. We believe contribution to the government should be limited to royalty payments (of some 2-3%) for the 3 companies.
How downstream do the 3 players go? We believe INCO would not be hurt from this new regulation given that INCO has its sulfide type nickel ore further processed into its smelting plant to become its end product which is nickel in matte with 80% nickel content. Whereas ANTM has its lateritic type nickel ore further processed into ferronickel. For TINS which produces tin commodity, its tin ore is further processed to its smelting & refining plant and sells its end product in different type of product forms and tin-grade quality.
Valuation. We have a NEUTRAL VIEW on our metal mining sector and is currently trading at 9.5x and 9.2x 2011-12PE, which is a 40% and 30% discount to the market. The discount is reflected mainly due to the global concern and lack of earnings growth.
source: OSK Nusadana Securities dated 8 September 2011
Metal Mining (NEUTRAL): Sector update - Shedding Some Light From The Ore Ban Plan
WHAT’S BREWING?
Industry Minister, Mohamad Hidayat recently stated its consideration to impose a tax on exports of mineral ores and concentrates such as nickel, copper and iron ore before their shipment in non-processed form is banned in 2014. Also a month ago, Coordinating Economic Minister, Hatta Rajasa mentioned its plan to build a road map for negotiations for this unprocessed ore ban plan in order to find a win-win solution with mine players.
OUR TAKE
Metal mining coverage not affected. Although the government’s plan to import tax is still under consideration, we believe companies from our metal mining coverage: International Nickel Indonesia (INCO), Aneka Tambang (ANTM) and Timah (TINS) would not have an impact on this regulation given that all these 3 companies have gone further downstream. It is worth noting that according to the Government Decree no.23 2010 for Implementation of Mineral & Coal Mining Activities, mining license holders (IUP) are obliged to process mineral ore into value added production. We believe contribution to the government should be limited to royalty payments (of some 2-3%) for the 3 companies.
How downstream do the 3 players go? We believe INCO would not be hurt from this new regulation given that INCO has its sulfide type nickel ore further processed into its smelting plant to become its end product which is nickel in matte with 80% nickel content. Whereas ANTM has its lateritic type nickel ore further processed into ferronickel. For TINS which produces tin commodity, its tin ore is further processed to its smelting & refining plant and sells its end product in different type of product forms and tin-grade quality.
Valuation. We have a NEUTRAL VIEW on our metal mining sector and is currently trading at 9.5x and 9.2x 2011-12PE, which is a 40% and 30% discount to the market. The discount is reflected mainly due to the global concern and lack of earnings growth.
source: OSK Nusadana Securities dated 8 September 2011
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