Thursday, October 20, 2011

Adaro Energy (ADRO.JK) - Target price Rp2,650

Alert: Additional 46% Stake Acquisition in Bukit Enim Energi

NEWS
Adaro announced that it has acquired an additional 46% stake in PT Bukit Enim Energi
(BEE), a coal mining company developing a greenfield coal project in South Sumatra,
for US$46m. Post this transaction, Adaro owns a 61% stake in BEE, Pamapersada
(United Tractor’s subsidiary) owns 20%, and another two investors own the remaining
19% stake.

CIRA COMMENT
The acquisition price of US$46m for the 46% stake is slightly lower than that of
Pamapersada’s 20% stake acquisition for US$21m in early July. In United Tractor’s
presentation, BEE is estimated to have coal reserve of 110m tons with CV of 4,500-
6,000 adb. The mine is expected to have peak production capacity of 7m tpa in the
next few years.

We estimate that the series of acquisitions Adaro has made this year substantially
improves the possibility that it will be able to reach 80m tons production by 2015.

We maintain Adaro as our top sector pick for its attractive valuations and medium- to
long-term robust production growth potential. The stock trades at 6.7x 2012E P/E – 1
std below the stock’s mean since its listing.

Adaro Energy
Valuation
Our target price for Adaro Energy of Rp2,650 is based on a 2012E EV/EBITDA of 5.5x.
We use the stock's mean multiple since its listing. We have opted to use EV/EBITDA as
our valuation metric to avoid distortions caused by differences in tax rates between
Indonesian companies and their regional peers.

Risks
Risks that could prevent the shares from reaching our target price include: a) coal price volatility; b) fluctuating crude oil prices; c) poor weather conditions that might hamper coal production; and d) overpriced acquisitions.

source: Citi dated 19 October 2011

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