Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Banking

Good indication for FY11 results

Maintain overweight on the banking sector. Bank Indonesia released the November 2011 non-consolidated and un-audited financial figures of Bank Mandiri (BMRI.IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI.IJ), Bank Central Asia (BBCA.IJ), Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ),
Bank Danamon (BDMN.IJ), Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN.IJ), and Bank BJB (BJBR.IJ). We keep our earnings estimates unchanged and maintain BUY recommendation on these banks.

Not too many surprises in November figures. The annualized November 2011 figures for BRI, BCA, Danamon, BTN, and BJB were inline with our FY11 estimates. Please note that BRI booked a significant net profit jump in 4Q10 due to changes in its accounting method, which accounts for the lower y/y growth figures of our FY11 estimates as compared to the 9M11 periods. By November 2011, BTN’s NPL has improved to 3.7% (vs. 4.2% in 9M11), while BJB managed to maintain its NPL at 2.5%.

Tax discounts still awaiting tax office’s approval. Mandiri and BNI are the two banks whose November 2011 profits were below our forecasts. For BNI, the difference lies in the 5% tax discount that we had already taken into account in our FY11 valuation. As for Mandiri, we believe that its FY11 consolidated earnings would be closer to our estimate of Rp12.9t, as its November 2011 figure showed a lower effective tax rate. Both banks are still awaiting approval from the tax
office to apply the tax reduction following the increase in the banks’ free float portion to 40%.

Top picks are Mandiri and BRI. We estimate loan growth rates of 18%-22% for the banks under our coverage in 2012F. A decline in NIM is foreseeable only in the medium term. In the meantime, banks will strive for higher efficiencies to increase their fee-based income and maintain an attractive ROE. We remain cautiously positive on the banking sector. Risks to our valuation include tighter policy action from the Central Bank. Our top picks in the sector are Bank Mandiri at TP of Rp9,100/share (14.9x 2012F PER; 2.8x 2012F PBV) and BRI at TP of Rp8,500/share (12.8x 2012F PER; 3.4x 2012F PBV).

Source: KIMENG dated 26 January 2012

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