Monday, January 16, 2012

United Tractors, Target price Rp31,500

● Investor Daily, on 12 January 2012, reported that United Tractors’ (UT) heavy equipment sales volume jumped 57% YoY to 8,469 units in 2011, which came in slightly above our full-year estimate of 8,332 units. December 2011 sales volume reached 615 units, up 96% YoY (despite being down 18% MoM due to fewer working days during the month).
● UT targets this year’s heavy equipment sales volume at around 9,500 units (based on September 2011 budget).
● In addition, the company is currently in the due diligence process of acquiring two new coal mines located in Central Kalimantan (greenfield) and East Kalimantan (brownfield). No further details on the acquisition are provided yet.
● We maintain our positive outlook on UT. Thus, we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the stock, and target price of Rp31,500/ share, implying 18.6x FY12E, 8.8x FY12E EV/EBITDA.

FY11 heavy equipment sales volume jumped 57% YoY, at
8,469 units
Investor Daily, on 12 January 2012, reported that United Tractors’ (UT) heavy equipment sales volume jumped 57% YoY to 8,469 units in 2011, which came in slightly above our full-year estimate of 8,332 units. December 2011 sales volume reached 615 units, up 96% YoY (despite being down 18% MoM due to fewer working days during the month). Based on UT’s September 2011 budget, the company targets 9,500 units of heavy equipment sales volume this year.

For its mining contracting business, UT targets 84–85 mn tonnes of coal production and 790 mn bcm of overburden in 2011, with the expectation of a 10% increase for both coal production and
overburden this year. For the mining business, UT estimates its coal sales volume to reach
4.4 mn tonnes in 2011, while it targets this year’s coal sales volume to reach 6–7 mn tonnes.
UT is currently in the due diligence process of acquiring two new coal mines located in Central Kalimantan (greenfield), located near UT’s existing TTA mine, and East Kalimantan (brownfield). No further details on the acquisition are provided yet.

Maintain OUTPERFORM
We maintain our positive outlook on UT. Thus, we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the stock and target price of Rp31,500/ share, implying 18.6x FY12E, 8.8x FY12E EV/EBITDA.

Source: CreditSuisse dated 12 January 2012

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