Friday, April 20, 2012

AALI Target price Rp25,500

Astra Agro Lestari (AALI.IJ, HOLD) - 1Q12 Earnings: Temporary Hiccup

– Despite higher production and sales volume in 1Q12, AALI’s revenue dropped by 6.5% YoY to Rp2.6t, but still in line with our full-year forecast. The drop in the ASP from Rp8,278/kg in 1Q11 to Rp7,706/kg was the main contributor for the decline of the 1Q12 revenue.
– Based on the indicative 1Q12 revenue, we expect earnings to fall in tandem with lower ASP realisation.
– Incorporating recently revised-up FY12 CPO price estimate to RM3,150/tonne from RM2,800/tonne previously, we raised our full-year earnings slightly by 2.7% to Rp2.6t, resulting in higher TP of 25,500. Nevertheless, we maintain our HOLD rating on limited upside.

source: KIMENG dated 20 April 2012

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