Thursday, June 7, 2012
Astra Int'l - Two-wheeler sales remain weak in May (TP Rp8,750)
Two-wheeler May sales: 615,047 units (-13% YoY; 0% MoM)
We attribute this weakness to tighter financing availability ahead of the minimum down-payment (DP) implementation on 15 June. Refer to table below for details. Overall, the 5M12 sales reached 3.2m units (-7% YoY) and now represent 37% of our 8.5m units (+6% YoY) 2012 forecast, which implies
monthly sales of 821k units needed from June-Dec.
Astra Honda May sales: 362,127 units (-4% YoY; +5% MoM)
Similar to the industry, Astra Honda's sales contracted YoY but were able to put out another outperformance compared to its rivals Yamaha. For instance, Astra Honda expanded its market share again to 56% (+2ppt YoY) in May at the expense of its main rival Yamaha. For details please refer to table below. In total, Astra's 5M12 sales remain the strongest in the industry as it reached 1.8m units (+2% YoY). This accounts for 38% to our forecast of 4.7m units (+9% YoY) in 2012 and thus translates into monthly sales of 447k units needed from June-Dec.
Maintain Buy with TP of Rp8,750
We maintain our view that Astra Honda will continue to outperform Yamaha given still ample financing support following its good product line-up and strong balance sheet. Nonetheless, we do see short-term headwind in the industry mainly due to the minimum DP requirement that could shave monthly sales by 15-20% (based on the Indonesia Two-wheeler Association's new sales forecast). Based on our sensitivity analysis, every
10% decline in 2-wheeler sales would lower Astra's net profit by c. 2.6%.
Source: Deutsche Bank dated 6 June 2012
We attribute this weakness to tighter financing availability ahead of the minimum down-payment (DP) implementation on 15 June. Refer to table below for details. Overall, the 5M12 sales reached 3.2m units (-7% YoY) and now represent 37% of our 8.5m units (+6% YoY) 2012 forecast, which implies
monthly sales of 821k units needed from June-Dec.
Astra Honda May sales: 362,127 units (-4% YoY; +5% MoM)
Similar to the industry, Astra Honda's sales contracted YoY but were able to put out another outperformance compared to its rivals Yamaha. For instance, Astra Honda expanded its market share again to 56% (+2ppt YoY) in May at the expense of its main rival Yamaha. For details please refer to table below. In total, Astra's 5M12 sales remain the strongest in the industry as it reached 1.8m units (+2% YoY). This accounts for 38% to our forecast of 4.7m units (+9% YoY) in 2012 and thus translates into monthly sales of 447k units needed from June-Dec.
Maintain Buy with TP of Rp8,750
We maintain our view that Astra Honda will continue to outperform Yamaha given still ample financing support following its good product line-up and strong balance sheet. Nonetheless, we do see short-term headwind in the industry mainly due to the minimum DP requirement that could shave monthly sales by 15-20% (based on the Indonesia Two-wheeler Association's new sales forecast). Based on our sensitivity analysis, every
10% decline in 2-wheeler sales would lower Astra's net profit by c. 2.6%.
Source: Deutsche Bank dated 6 June 2012