Astra Graphia (ASGR.IJ, BUY) - Stronger
Performance in 2Q12
–
Astra
Graphia reported stronger 2Q12 results. Revenue grew 15% QoQ to IDR488b, while
net profit grew by 9% QoQ to IDR37b. The 2Q12 net profit and revenue were above
our expectation.
– 2H
is historically better than 1H. In fact, 4Q revenue performance is typically
the highest among the quarters (contributing around 40% to total revenue),
supported by government spending.
–
We
are still maintaining our FY12 estimates but remain caution that global economy
turmoil may trigger further Rupiah depreciation that will pressure on the
company’s gross margin. Retain BUY, TP at IDR1,840.
Bank BJB (BJBR.IJ, BUY) - Continuing
Expansion
– BJB
posted IDR600b net profit in 1H12, inline with our estimates. It was a semester
of strong growth across all lending segment for the bank. This allowed NIM to
return to YE11 position of 6.9%.
–
As
the competition, especially in the consumer segment, is quite intense, we have
increased our FY12 loan growth assumption by only 30bps to 25% YoY. This brings
us to a new net profit figure that is 9% higher than our previous forecast
– Considering
the fact that BJB has healthy fundamentals to support future growth, its share
price should have bottomed out. We keep our TP at IDR1,230/share (9.6x 2012F
PER; 1.9x 2012F PBV)
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI.IJ, BUY) -
Warranted Premium
–
BRI’s
1H12 net profit of IDR8.7t was above our estimates. The main difference came
from the bank’s lower-than-expected provisioning expenses. NIM remained
relatively flat QoQ, but was still far above the industry’s average.
–
We
keep our loan growth assumptions conservative as more banks enter the micro and
consumer lending market. Our current valuation suggests that NIM will only inch
up slightly to 8.6% towards YE12.
–
We
believe that the stock’s premium valuation is still warranted, as BRI offers
30% ROE, which is the highest among big banks. Hence, we keep our TP of
IDR8,500/share (12.6x 2012F PER and 3.3x 2012F PBV).
Indocement (INTP.IJ, HOLD) - Results On Track
– Indocement
(INTP) booked a 1H12 earnings of IDR2.2t, up 25% YoY. Revenue of IDR8.2t,
within our expectations, rose 29% YoY supported by strong domestic sales and a
6% domestic price increase in 1H12.
–
We
expect INTP will be able to maintain its market share at the 33% level until
the end of 2012 as it has the benefit of extra capacity. Its plant capacity
utilisation is estimated at 94% in 2012 versus peers’ 97-98%, giving it the
ability to raise ASPs in 2H12.
–
We
lift our TP to IDR23,000 (from IDR21,000) as we raise our FY12 ASP growth
assumption to 8% YoY, considering the 1H12 ASP has reach our FY estimates.
Maintain HOLD stance due to limited upside.
