Thursday, October 11, 2012

Modernland Realty
Bright Industrial Outlook
Robust 1H12 results. Modernland’s (MDLN) 1H12 net profit was IDR144b, surging by 473% YoY and 6% QoQ. Revenue rose by 128% YoY, underpinned by a 244% YoY jump in land plot sales. 1H bottom
line has met 52% of our FY12 estimate, which is in line with our expectations. We strongly believe that MDLN will be able to exceed its bottom line target of IDR238b in 2012.

Margin improvement. Thanks to lower operating and other expenses, net margin inched up by 17ppts YoY and 13ppts QoQ to 28% and 36%, respectively. We estimate that FY12F net margin will reach 25% — a
high for MDLN compared to only 15–19% achieved over the past few years. Additionally, this figure looks set to improve further in the upcoming years on the back of land price appreciation.

Modern Cikande is the primary area candidate for Foxconn. Rising FDI and domestic investment have placed MDLN in a strong position to benefit from robust industrial land demand. Recent news have indicated that Foxconn Technology is highly interested in MDLN’s Modern Cikande for its USD5–10b expansion in Indonesia. There are a few reasons as to why Foxconn has chosen Modern Cikande for its
expansion; in our view, the key reason is the area’s proximity to the Cengkareng International Airport. In terms of distance to the airport, Cikande is the closest (50 km) among area peers such as Cikarang
(~55–69km) and Karawang (85km).

Profit upside in 2014 from Cakung warehousing project. MDLN has acquired around 100ha of land in Cakung, East Jakarta to develop a warehouse. Cakung is located near the Tanjung Priok port that is
undergoing a major expansion. The company is currently working on acquiring the license, once obtained the company expects to sell around 8ha of land per annum. The potential profit contribution (starting
from 2014) could be as high as Rp500b per annum.

Reiterate Buy with a TP of IDR690. We maintain our TP of IDR690 on the counter, pegging the stock at 16x FY12F PER (45% discount to NAV). Maintain BUY with a potential 21% upside from the current level.
We consider FDI and domestic investment in Modern Cikande to be the main catalysts for the next three years.

source: KIMENG dated 11 October 2012