Friday, September 6, 2013

AKR Corpindo (AKRA IJ) - TP Rp4100

Jayden Vantarakis downgrades fuel provider AKR Corpindo (AKRA IJ) to Underperform from Outperform citing lower expected fuel volumes, delayed industrial land sales and at risk margins on account of US$ exposure.  As a result, Jayden cuts his TP from RP6700 to Rp4100 per share.  EPS are not spared with cuts by 11% and 20% in 2013 and 2014.

Key points from the report:

·         We expect continued weakness in commodity markets to keep fuel volume growth subdued for AKR, and reduce our fuel sale volume estimates by 19-31% this year and next.
·         Subsidised fuel volumes will help to cushion the impact, execution is taking time and we now don’t expect full realisation of the 800ML+ allocation until 15CL,
·         CLSA recently visited AKR's Java Integrated Industrial and Ports Estate in East Java. Progress on land fill for the 900hA already acquired is evident, but offshore land reclamation for the port is yet to begin.
·         Given the macroeconomic environment, progress on the port will be required in our view to convince investors to commit to land purchases in the estate.
·         We downgrade AKR to Underperform with an Rp4,100/sh price target. Given the lower expected rate of growth on earnings we reduce our target multiple to 16.5x for the core business (reflecting the mid-point since Sorini was divested) combined with DCF derived targets for the company’s projects.


Link to the report here: AKR - U-PF (More elusive growth)

Source:  CLSA Indonesia dated : September 2013