Friday, September 6, 2013
AKR Corpindo (AKRA IJ) - TP Rp4100
Jayden Vantarakis downgrades fuel provider AKR Corpindo (AKRA IJ) to
Underperform from Outperform citing lower expected fuel volumes,
delayed industrial land sales and at risk margins on account of
US$ exposure. As a result, Jayden cuts his TP from RP6700 to
Rp4100 per share. EPS are not spared with cuts by 11% and
20% in 2013 and 2014.
Source: CLSA
Indonesia dated : September 2013
Key points from the
report:
·
We
expect continued weakness in commodity markets to keep fuel volume
growth subdued for AKR, and reduce our fuel sale volume estimates
by 19-31% this year and next.
·
Subsidised
fuel volumes
will help to cushion the impact, execution is taking time and we
now don’t expect full realisation of the 800ML+ allocation until
15CL,
·
CLSA
recently visited AKR's Java Integrated Industrial and Ports Estate in East
Java.
Progress on land fill for the 900hA already acquired is evident,
but offshore land reclamation for the port is yet to begin.
·
Given
the macroeconomic environment, progress on the port will be required
in our view to convince investors to commit to land purchases in the estate.
·
We
downgrade AKR to Underperform with an Rp4,100/sh price target.
Given the lower expected rate of growth on earnings we reduce our
target multiple to 16.5x for the core business (reflecting the mid-point
since Sorini was divested) combined with DCF derived targets for the company’s
projects.
Link to the
report here: AKR - U-PF (More
elusive growth)