Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Telecommunications Infrastructure (Target price IDR7,250)
Communications - Telecommunications Infrastructure
Market Cap: USD2,455m
High Growth With Reasonable Valuations
We initiate coverage on Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG) with a BUY call and a TP of IDR7,250. We expect TBIG to enjoy strong earnings growth in FY13 from the maiden full-year consolidation of the
2,500 towers it acquired from Indosat in Aug 2012. We are of the view that the company’s low co-location ratio offers growth upside. In addition to earnings growth, TBIG offers a decent divided yield of 2.3%.
Solid base. The bulk of TBIG’s revenue (75%) comes from the major telecom operators, which minimises the potential risk of delays or defaults in payments. We believe this is prudent given the cash-intensive
nature of the business. Management said this has been a deliberate strategy and that the focus is to continue building up this solid base.
Low co-location ratio. TBIG has a lower co-location ratio (1.76 in 2Q13) vs TOWR (1.84 in 2Q13), which suggests there is slightly more room to boost tenancies at an incremental capex only. We see
opportunities for its co-location ratio to improve as the bulk of TBIG’s towers are located in the densely-populated Java and Sumatra.
Strong revenue growth expected. We expect TBIG to register a strong FY12-14 revenue CAGR of 40.5%, driven by the full-year impact of the 2,500 towers acquired from Indosat as well as organic growth through new towers built and leased out. For FY13, we are forecasting 3,300 new tenancies based on guidance from management and are assuming such growth pace is sustained in FY14.
Risks. The risks include: i) lower-than-expected tower leasing rates; and ii) delays or defaults in payments from tenants; and iii) higher-thanexpected financing costs due to adverse fluctuations in interest rates.
Investment case. Attaching an average target EV/EBITDA multiple of 16x to our EV/EBITDA estimate of IDR2.77trn, we arrive at a IDR7,250 TP for TBIG. Our target EV/EBITDA multiple is comparable to its peers in developed markets that are trading at 15-17x, which we believe is justified given the strong growth prospects of the Indonesian tower market, which has yet to mature, in our view.
source: RHB OSK dated 24 September 2013
Market Cap: USD2,455m
High Growth With Reasonable Valuations
We initiate coverage on Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG) with a BUY call and a TP of IDR7,250. We expect TBIG to enjoy strong earnings growth in FY13 from the maiden full-year consolidation of the
2,500 towers it acquired from Indosat in Aug 2012. We are of the view that the company’s low co-location ratio offers growth upside. In addition to earnings growth, TBIG offers a decent divided yield of 2.3%.
Solid base. The bulk of TBIG’s revenue (75%) comes from the major telecom operators, which minimises the potential risk of delays or defaults in payments. We believe this is prudent given the cash-intensive
nature of the business. Management said this has been a deliberate strategy and that the focus is to continue building up this solid base.
Low co-location ratio. TBIG has a lower co-location ratio (1.76 in 2Q13) vs TOWR (1.84 in 2Q13), which suggests there is slightly more room to boost tenancies at an incremental capex only. We see
opportunities for its co-location ratio to improve as the bulk of TBIG’s towers are located in the densely-populated Java and Sumatra.
Strong revenue growth expected. We expect TBIG to register a strong FY12-14 revenue CAGR of 40.5%, driven by the full-year impact of the 2,500 towers acquired from Indosat as well as organic growth through new towers built and leased out. For FY13, we are forecasting 3,300 new tenancies based on guidance from management and are assuming such growth pace is sustained in FY14.
Risks. The risks include: i) lower-than-expected tower leasing rates; and ii) delays or defaults in payments from tenants; and iii) higher-thanexpected financing costs due to adverse fluctuations in interest rates.
Investment case. Attaching an average target EV/EBITDA multiple of 16x to our EV/EBITDA estimate of IDR2.77trn, we arrive at a IDR7,250 TP for TBIG. Our target EV/EBITDA multiple is comparable to its peers in developed markets that are trading at 15-17x, which we believe is justified given the strong growth prospects of the Indonesian tower market, which has yet to mature, in our view.
source: RHB OSK dated 24 September 2013