Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Sector Upgraded To OVERWEIGHT
We are OVERWEIGHT on the plantation sector, which we believe will have a good year ahead with most companies experiencing stronger profitability. This will be driven by stronger demand for palm oil from
the food and fuel sectors, higher ASPs on lacklustre production growth in Indonesia and lower fertiliser costs. Our average CPO price assumption is raised to MYR2,700/MYR2,900 for CY14/CY15.
OVERWEIGHT sector. While maintaining an OVERWEIGHT position for SGX plantation stocks, we upgrade the regional plantation sector to OVERWEIGHT (from Neutral), as earnings outlook brighten after two years of contraction. Our CPO price assumption for CY14 and CY15 is raised to MYR2,700/tonne and MYR2,900/tonne respectively (from MYR2,600/tonne).
The catalysts. We believe stronger palm oil prices will be seen as a result of stronger demand for both food and fuel, and poor production growth from Indonesia as a result of rainfall deficit. These will lead to
Indonesia’s stock/usage ratio falling to 8% in 2014 (2013: 13%), its lowest levels since 2009, and weakening further in 2015.
Relief from cheaper fertilisers. The significantly cheaper fertilisers following the potash cartel breakup will help ease the cost pressures that plantation companies have been facing since 2006. The stronger output
prices and cheaper input prices mean sector profitability will improve next year.
Stock upgrades. With FVs raised across the board, two stocks, ie IOI Corp (IOI MK, TP: MYR6.50) and Kulim Malaysia (KUL MK, TP: MYR4.22), are UPGRADED to BUYs from Neutral. We continue to like First Resources (FR SP, BUY, TP: SGD2.70), Bumitama Agri (BAL SP, BUY, TP: SGD1.35) and Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ, BUY, TP: IDR28,352), along with our Malaysian Top Picks – IOI Corp and
Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP MK, BUY, TP: MYR7.12)
source: RHB dated 13 December 2013
the food and fuel sectors, higher ASPs on lacklustre production growth in Indonesia and lower fertiliser costs. Our average CPO price assumption is raised to MYR2,700/MYR2,900 for CY14/CY15.
OVERWEIGHT sector. While maintaining an OVERWEIGHT position for SGX plantation stocks, we upgrade the regional plantation sector to OVERWEIGHT (from Neutral), as earnings outlook brighten after two years of contraction. Our CPO price assumption for CY14 and CY15 is raised to MYR2,700/tonne and MYR2,900/tonne respectively (from MYR2,600/tonne).
The catalysts. We believe stronger palm oil prices will be seen as a result of stronger demand for both food and fuel, and poor production growth from Indonesia as a result of rainfall deficit. These will lead to
Indonesia’s stock/usage ratio falling to 8% in 2014 (2013: 13%), its lowest levels since 2009, and weakening further in 2015.
Relief from cheaper fertilisers. The significantly cheaper fertilisers following the potash cartel breakup will help ease the cost pressures that plantation companies have been facing since 2006. The stronger output
prices and cheaper input prices mean sector profitability will improve next year.
Stock upgrades. With FVs raised across the board, two stocks, ie IOI Corp (IOI MK, TP: MYR6.50) and Kulim Malaysia (KUL MK, TP: MYR4.22), are UPGRADED to BUYs from Neutral. We continue to like First Resources (FR SP, BUY, TP: SGD2.70), Bumitama Agri (BAL SP, BUY, TP: SGD1.35) and Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ, BUY, TP: IDR28,352), along with our Malaysian Top Picks – IOI Corp and
Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP MK, BUY, TP: MYR7.12)
source: RHB dated 13 December 2013