Saturday, July 30, 2011
AKR Corporindo Strong 1H11 results TP3,300
Our View
�� AKR’s 1H11 revenue and core net profit were in line with our expectations. We had anticipated strong 1H11 revenue. We raised our assumptions on the ASP of petroleum to Rp7,000 per lt from Rp6,000 per lt, and petroleum sales volume to 2m KL from 1.8m KL this year..
The lower gross margin of 5% in 1H11 (from 6.3% in 1H10) was mainly due to an increase in the revenue contribution of petroleum distribution from 58% in 1H10 to 79% in 1H11. In addition, management separates forex gains from petroleum purchase
transactions in COGS. If forex gains were included in COGS, AKR’s gross margin would have been 5.9% in 1H11, or in line with our estimate.
�� The second interim dividend distribution was a surprise; we had not factor in the second interim dividend previously. The second interim dividend constitutes a DPOR of 35%, based on our FY11 net profit estimate. We still maintain our view that the DPOR would be 31%, based on our FY12 net profit estimate.
Action & Recommendation
�� The share price soared close to our TP, driven by the announcement of strong 1H11 results and a huge second interim dividend DPS of Rp200. We maintain our TP at Rp3,300 (pegging the stock at 18.5x 2012 PER).Since the stock’s upside potential is only 7%, we downgrade our recommendation to HOLD.
source: KIMENG dated 29 July 2011
�� AKR’s 1H11 revenue and core net profit were in line with our expectations. We had anticipated strong 1H11 revenue. We raised our assumptions on the ASP of petroleum to Rp7,000 per lt from Rp6,000 per lt, and petroleum sales volume to 2m KL from 1.8m KL this year..
The lower gross margin of 5% in 1H11 (from 6.3% in 1H10) was mainly due to an increase in the revenue contribution of petroleum distribution from 58% in 1H10 to 79% in 1H11. In addition, management separates forex gains from petroleum purchase
transactions in COGS. If forex gains were included in COGS, AKR’s gross margin would have been 5.9% in 1H11, or in line with our estimate.
�� The second interim dividend distribution was a surprise; we had not factor in the second interim dividend previously. The second interim dividend constitutes a DPOR of 35%, based on our FY11 net profit estimate. We still maintain our view that the DPOR would be 31%, based on our FY12 net profit estimate.
Action & Recommendation
�� The share price soared close to our TP, driven by the announcement of strong 1H11 results and a huge second interim dividend DPS of Rp200. We maintain our TP at Rp3,300 (pegging the stock at 18.5x 2012 PER).Since the stock’s upside potential is only 7%, we downgrade our recommendation to HOLD.
source: KIMENG dated 29 July 2011
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