Friday, October 7, 2011

Equity Daily

Bank Mandiri (BMRI.IJ, BUY): 3Q11 loan growth estimated at 27% y/y
􀂃 Bank Mandiri estimated its 3Q11 loan growth to have reached 27% y/y on a consolidated level (or 25% y/y bank only). It implies a total loan book of Rp292t by end of September 2011.
􀂃 The bank is scheduled to announce its 3Q11 financial result by the last week of October.

Analyst comment:
􀂃 Mandiri’s indicated loan figure is inline with our estimate. It implies 19.7% YTD growth, on track to meet our FY11 estimate of 24% y/y.
􀂃 We estimate Mandiri’s net profit to grow 40% y/y to Rp12.9t by YE11,already including the 5% tax discount from an increased free float since early this year. We maintain our BUY recommendation on Bank Mandiri with TP at Rp9,300/share (15.0x 2012F PER; 2.8x 2012F PBV).


United Tractors (UNTR.IJ, BUY): To distribute Rp185 interim DPS (yield=0.9%)
􀂃 The company plans to pay Rp185 interim DPS next month, or total Rp691b for FY11.
􀂃 Separately, it also earmarks US$450m for capital expenditure in 2012, similar to its spending this year, financed internally.

Analyst comment:
􀂃 We maintain our target price of Rp26,100, pegging the stock at 18.8‐14.2x FY11‐12 PER. BUY.


Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS.IJ, HOLD): Paying down debts
􀂃 The company is aiming to pay back total US$300m debt in 2011. It has already paid US$250m debt YTD, with current balance of US$917m total debts as of June 2011. The company plans to pay further US$50m loan from Standard Chartered by end of this year.

Analyst comment:
􀂃 With cash position of more than US$1.3b as of June 2011, we do not see any problem for Perusahaan Gas to pay down its debt. Its current gearing is relatively healthy at 0.57x.
􀂃 However, outlook on the company does not look very attractive. Sales volume on distribution business seems show no growth this year, due to limited gas supply. On the other hand, pressure from the government to raise its cost of gas to almost double with a risk not being able to entirely pass on the raise to consumer, increasing the downside risk in earnings, in our view.
􀂃 We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the counter.

source:KIM ENG dated 7 October 2011

No comments:

Post a Comment