Thursday, December 15, 2011
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI.JK / MAPI IJ) - TP Rp6,000
An exciting shopping experience
■ Initiate coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating. (1) We believe Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI) is well positioned to benefit from the emergence of Indonesia’s middle- and upper-income segments; (2) MAPI’s re-focus on profitability suggests its recent margin expansion is defensible; and (3) its stock trades at 0.7x PEG, a 48% discount to the regional average.
■ Targeting the right segment. MAPI benefits from the rise of middle- and high-income groups, its target segments, in Indonesia. Based on a Nielsen survey in 12 Indonesian cities, the proportion of middle- and high-income population increased from 42% in 2008 to 62% in 2010, implying 48 mn people entered these segments during the period. Credit Suisse Indonesia
Consumer Survey 2011 also found confidence on income growth among Indonesian people among the highest, with 25% respondents expecting more than 10% income growth. We expect MAPI’s 2011-14 revenue CAGR to accelerate to 18.6% from 16.6% in 2008-10.
■ Re-focusing on profitability. Given MAPI’s emphasis on profitability, its operating margins expanded from 7.5% in 2009 to 9.5% in 2010. We believe the strategic shift became possible once MAPI reached a critical level in terms of revenue and the size of its stores portfolio, allowing the retailer to expand only higher-margin stores while simultaneously boldly closing down less-profitable ones. Assuming a 10% store expansion growth over the next four years, we
believe MAPI is on track to post a 26% earnings CAGR over 2011-14.
■ Supported by earnings growth. Our target price of Rp6,000 (suggesting a 22.4% potential upside) for MAPI is based on DCF valuation, implying 23.5x FY12E P/E and 10.3x FY12E EV/EBITDA. Given MAPI’s strong earnings growth, its stock is trading at 0.7x PEG, a 48% discount to regional peers. Risks: (1) Principal risk; (2) MAPI being forced into cannibalisation due to a property sector boom; (3) competition from both existing and new players; (4) regulatory risks; and (5) macroeconomic risks.
source: CreditSuisse dated 4 Nov 2011
■ Initiate coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating. (1) We believe Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI) is well positioned to benefit from the emergence of Indonesia’s middle- and upper-income segments; (2) MAPI’s re-focus on profitability suggests its recent margin expansion is defensible; and (3) its stock trades at 0.7x PEG, a 48% discount to the regional average.
■ Targeting the right segment. MAPI benefits from the rise of middle- and high-income groups, its target segments, in Indonesia. Based on a Nielsen survey in 12 Indonesian cities, the proportion of middle- and high-income population increased from 42% in 2008 to 62% in 2010, implying 48 mn people entered these segments during the period. Credit Suisse Indonesia
Consumer Survey 2011 also found confidence on income growth among Indonesian people among the highest, with 25% respondents expecting more than 10% income growth. We expect MAPI’s 2011-14 revenue CAGR to accelerate to 18.6% from 16.6% in 2008-10.
■ Re-focusing on profitability. Given MAPI’s emphasis on profitability, its operating margins expanded from 7.5% in 2009 to 9.5% in 2010. We believe the strategic shift became possible once MAPI reached a critical level in terms of revenue and the size of its stores portfolio, allowing the retailer to expand only higher-margin stores while simultaneously boldly closing down less-profitable ones. Assuming a 10% store expansion growth over the next four years, we
believe MAPI is on track to post a 26% earnings CAGR over 2011-14.
■ Supported by earnings growth. Our target price of Rp6,000 (suggesting a 22.4% potential upside) for MAPI is based on DCF valuation, implying 23.5x FY12E P/E and 10.3x FY12E EV/EBITDA. Given MAPI’s strong earnings growth, its stock is trading at 0.7x PEG, a 48% discount to regional peers. Risks: (1) Principal risk; (2) MAPI being forced into cannibalisation due to a property sector boom; (3) competition from both existing and new players; (4) regulatory risks; and (5) macroeconomic risks.
source: CreditSuisse dated 4 Nov 2011
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