ASII: 2W volume rebounded 40% in July; UNTR maintain guidance
During Astra Int’
analyst briefing yesterday, mgmt said that its motorcycle volume rebounded by
around 40% MoM in July (vs industry -11% MoM in June). Ferry had cut 2W
numbers by 9% to 4.07mn units (-5% YoY), but acknowledges upside risk as 1H12
volume was flat YoY. This further supports Ferry’s recent upgrade on ASII to
Buy TP Rp7,700.
On UNTR,
mgmt maintain their FY12 guidance for heavy equipments volume at
8500units. This is in contrast with street’s expectation of further cut in
guidance. Mgmt mentioned that mining demand has slowed but demand for forestry,
construction and agriculture remained strong (higher margin). Will see strong
demand rebound in Sept post Muslim festivities. After 38% drop, share px
likely have bottomed, further catalysts will come from release of strong
data in Pama around 20 Aug, rebound in heavy equip volume in Sept, rebound in
coal px to above $90/t. Kim rates Buy on UNTR TP Rp26900 (32%
upside)
1H12
round-ups: Domestic names solid, commodities
underperform
Post 2Q results
round-ups from Ferry & team…Bottomline, domestic-oriented names i.e.
banks, property, cement performed well with net profit +16% yoy
(Notably, property +82% YoY, banks +19% yoy). Meanwhile, the commodity
sector (only 3 companies hv reported so far) net profit only +3% yoy.
Overall, the companies under our coverage posted net profit at Rp56.9trn, +16%
yoy, accounting for 49%-50% of ours & consensus forecasts. For 2H12
outlook, we see room for earning upgrades by the street on property and to some
extent banks, but we see downside risks for coal mining sector. Mkt trades
on 13x one-year fwd P/E (20% premium to regional ) with EPS growth of 12.5% and
ROE of 25.5%. Ferry maintains YE12 index target of 4450 and reiterates
preferences on domestic-oriented names. Top 5 picks are Astra Int’, Mandiri,
BRI, BNI and Jasamarga.
BSDE
Conf Call today at 4pm HK/SG; 3pm Jkt
Bumi Serpong Damai -
Company update and business strategy post 1H12 results.
Agenda: Brief
discussion on the 1H12 results, Future BSDE launchings and future projects,
Impact on higher down payment, Toll road and road access and what are the
progress so far? What are the plans with Kota Deltamas (Industrial Estate
belongs to Sinarmas land)? Any plan to inject Kota Deltamas to
BSDE?
