United Tractors (UNTR.IJ, BUY) - Cautious
Recovery Ahead
–
We
expect softening coal prices to significantly erode UNTR’s 3Q12 earnings on
likely further deceleration in heavy equipment sales, but quarterly volume
improvement could emerge on coal price rebound.
–
With
limited downside to coal prices, we expect UNTR’s mining contracting unit Pama
Persada to provide cushion on the company’s earnings. Note that UNTR has
received additional contract orders as smaller mining contracts are facing
difficulties.
–
UNTR’s
share price has fallen 36% from its peak, underperforming the market by 25%.
While monthly sales volume and coal price movement should be monitored closely,
signs of early recovery could be seen in 4Q12. Raise TP to IDR25,000 and
maintain BUY rating.
Sumarecon Agung (SMRA.IJ, BUY) - A Sterling
Result
–
Summarecon
Agung (SMRA) booked a 1H12 earnings of IDR311b, double that of the same period
last year. 1H12 revenue surged 61% YoY to IDR1.5t, mainly supported by higher
ASPs and strong plot sales. The earnings figure was well above our expectations
and constitute 71% of our FY12 estimates.
–
We
expect SMRA to easily achieve its FY12 marketing sales target of IDR3.5t given
its plan to launch a total of four new clusters with higher ASPs.
–
We
revise our ASP assumptions for Serpong and Bekasi to IDR4m and IDR3m per sqm,
respectively and increase our NAV to IDR3,540 per share, translating to a new
TP of IDR2,300 (from IDR2,000), based on a 35% discount to our NAV estimate.
Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI.IJ, BUY) - The Worst
Is Over
–
Alam
Sutera Realty (ASRI) booked 1H12 net profit of IDR526b, up 82% YoY, Its revenue
rose 58% YoY to IDR1.1t, slightly below our expectations. ASRI’s 2Q12 marketing
sales were weak (down 72% QoQ) as the company did not launch many projecst in
2Q12.
–
We
expect ASRI to continue to add to its Serpong landbank, up to an additional
50ha this year. This should be NAV accretive as well as generate favourable
news flow.
–
We
believe that most investor concerns regarding ASRI’s USD150m bond issue have
already priced in. We slightly tweak our FY12F earnings downwards to adjust for
the 1H12 results. Overall, we still maintain our BUY stance on the counter with
a new TP of IDR770 (from IDR790).
Source: KIMENG dated 6 August 2012
