Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI.IJ, SELL): Overvalued

v      Although management is targeting revenue growth of 48% YoY to IDR1.2t in FY12 with gross margins of 46% (in line with our estimates), we are concerned about the significant increase in operating expenses (OPEX).
v      Management has said that Yamazaki Baking Bread Ltd, the number one bread producer in Japan, will enter Indonesia bread’s market. We are monitoring the development of new competitors in the mass-produced bread segment.
v      Despite the change in our opex assumptions, we retain Sari Roti’s fair value at IDR5,050 (pegging the stock at 24.5x FY13F PER). The stock is overvalued at current levels, in our opinion. We downgrade our recommendation to SELL from HOLD.

source: KIMENG dated  21 December 2012