Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Nippon Indosari
Corpindo (ROTI.IJ, SELL): Overvalued
v
Although management is targeting revenue
growth of 48% YoY to IDR1.2t in FY12 with gross margins of 46% (in line with our
estimates), we are concerned about the significant increase in operating
expenses (OPEX).
v
Management has said that Yamazaki Baking
Bread Ltd, the number one bread producer in Japan, will enter Indonesia bread’s
market. We are monitoring the development of new competitors in the
mass-produced bread segment.
v
Despite the change in our opex assumptions,
we retain Sari Roti’s fair value at IDR5,050 (pegging the stock at 24.5x FY13F
PER). The stock is overvalued at current levels, in our opinion. We downgrade
our recommendation to SELL from HOLD.
source: KIMENG dated 21 December 2012