source: KIMENG dated 4 January 2013
Friday, January 4, 2013
Holcim Indonesia (SMCB.IJ, HOLD) - Brace for Royalty Hike
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Holcim Indonesia (SMCB) signed a
royalty agreement with Holcim Technology on Dec 26, 2012 in a move by
the latter to standardise its global licensing agreement.
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Under the new accord, SMCB will pay a
4% tariff royalty rate for its sales this year, compare to 1.7% last
year, and 5% from FY14 and beyond. Our calculations indicate that the
new royalty rates will trim the company’s earnings
in FY13F-14F by 14% and 18%, respectively.
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In our view, the best way to keep
losses to a minimum is to boost sales volume since a price adjustment
may affect SMCB’s market share. We have adjusted our earnings forecast
for FY13F-14F to factor in the increase in royalties.
As a result, our TP falls to IDR3,000/share from IDR3,400/share
previously. Maintain HOLD.source: KIMENG dated 4 January 2013