Friday, January 4, 2013

Holcim Indonesia (SMCB.IJ, HOLD) - Brace for Royalty Hike

v      Holcim Indonesia (SMCB) signed a royalty agreement with Holcim Technology on Dec 26, 2012 in a move by the latter to standardise its global licensing agreement.
v      Under the new accord, SMCB will pay a 4% tariff royalty rate for its sales this year, compare to 1.7% last year, and 5% from FY14 and beyond. Our calculations indicate that the new royalty rates will trim the company’s earnings in FY13F-14F by 14% and 18%, respectively.
v      In our view, the best way to keep losses to a minimum is to boost sales volume since a price adjustment may affect SMCB’s market share. We have adjusted our earnings forecast for FY13F-14F to factor in the increase in royalties. As a result, our TP falls to IDR3,000/share from IDR3,400/share previously. Maintain HOLD.

source: KIMENG dated 4 January 2013